Tag: Covid-19

This paper examines the impact of the macroeconomic turmoil, in particular the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war (RUW) in Ukraine, on Ukrainian agroholdings. Before the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine was a major global exporter of agricultural commodities, playing a crucial role in global food security and contributing significantly to the national economy. However, the outbreak of war in Ukraine brought with it unprecedented challenges such as loss of assets, damage to infrastructure, labour shortages and more. Despite these adversities, the Ukrainian agricultural sector remains resilient, attracting investment and maintaining its global presence in agriculture. This study aims to comprehensively analyse the resilience and vulnerability of Ukrainian agroholdings before and after these shocks. Our analysis shows different responses to the pandemic and war shocks, with agroholdings being resilient during the first shock but suffering significant setbacks during the second shock. These results underline the crucial role of the Ukrainian agricultural sector and provide valuable insights into its adaptability under turbulent macroeconomic conditions.

Food inflation in North America reached its peak in 2022, mainly driven by two factors: COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. COVID-19 disrupted the global supply chain, and triggered labour shortages; consequently, governments in all three North American countries adopted fiscal and monetary policies to offset the impact of the pandemic, mostly by providing direct assistance to businesses and households and by lowering interest rates. The invasion of Ukraine, a major exporter of grain and vegetable oil, increased commodity prices and contributed to higher food prices. Overall, food inflation in the U.S. varies according to both sector and timeframe. In response to the Russian invasion, cereal product prices in the U.S. have increased, whereas meat prices spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study focuses on determining the key factors that have led to higher food inflation in North America, and more specifically the United States. We have found that the unemployment rate, an index of global supply chain pressures, and COVID-19 related aid have directly contributed to U.S. food inflation. Projections from several organisations suggest food inflation will decline in 2023 and 2024.

Boosting the immune system’s response through better nutrition has been suggested as a coping strategy to help fight COVID-19. Among other food products, orange juice, a rich source of Vitamin C, has been in huge demand in India since the outbreak of COVID-19. Panic buying has further added to this increased demand for orange juice. Using data collected through online surveys, this paper applies both conjoint and market simulation analysis to study consumers’ preferences when purchasing orange juice. Nine important product attributes (flavour, preservatives, sweetener, brand, taste, pulp concentration, container, production method of orange and price) as well as different levels for each attribute are considered for the analysis. Among the selected attributes, relatively respondents gave more importance to the ‘method of production’ of orange, followed by ‘brand’, ‘pulp concentration’, ‘sweeteners’, and ‘preservatives.’ The market simulation analysis showed that a new product with the desired levels (high mean utility values) across the selected attributes would stand to enjoy a market share of around 32 percent. These findings support product differentiation as a strategy by firms in the food processing sector under conditions of intense competition.

This paper investigates the effects of three different simulated post-COVID-19 recovery GDP growth rates during 2021-2023 (baseline, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios) for agricultural markets in four selected EU Member States (the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, and Hungary) compared to a pre-COVID-19 projection. Empirical results are derived from the AGMEMOD model. A self-sufficiency ratio is utilised to summarise the net effects on consumption and supply in the agricultural markets. The country level analysis confirms that the agriculture sector in the EU has been quite resilient during the pandemic. The simulated impacts of the different GDP shocks on the agri-food sector are limited, which also conforms to reality, but changes in consumer behaviour could lead to longer lasting impacts on specific sectors.

The spread of COVID-19 has had a significant impact on economic and social activities, with the agri-food sector being no exception. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, numerous studies investigating its sectoral influence have been carried out, putting emphasis on demand and supply shocks and changes in trade volumes. However, there has not been much research into the implications of the pandemic for prices. To fill the research gap, this paper is an attempt to examine the impact of COVID-19 on producer prices in the EU-27 in Q2 and Q3 of 2020. The study is based on monthly data on trade in agri-food commodities according to the SITC classification in 2015-2020 and the monthly producer prices index of food (2015 = 100) in the EU countries. It was assumed that the agri-food trade balance is the key factor determining the level and changes of domestic prices. The theoretical background for empirical research is provided by a spatial partial equilibrium model and the concept of spatial market integration. The results of the study reveal that there is a negative and statistically significant relationship between an export-import ratio (which illustrates the country’s self-sufficiency level) in the pre-COVID-19 period and price changes in Q2 of ...

The Covid-19 pandemic has changed the dynamics of the overall economy, impacting many fields, including the agricultural sector. In this paper, we examine two important commodities of the agricultural sector, namely oats and wheat, during the Covid-19 spread and the lockdown measures. Using relevant time series specifications, we establish a hypothesis regarding the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on these two commodities. Based on our findings, the commodities were affected by the Covid-19 spread and moreover, the Covid-19 confirmed cases provide useful information for the prediction and forecasting of these values. Our findings are robust, since the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the alternative model employed, that explicitly incorporates the pandemic induced by the Covid-19 disease, is superior to the baseline model.