Modelling of cereal and oilseed crop production in Bulgaria in the context of policy changes

The article presents the results from a modelling exercise on five crops: wheat, barley, maize, sunflower and rapeseed. These crops cover 55 per cent of the utilised agricultural land in Bulgaria and over 90 per cent of the arable land. The main goal of the research was to project the development of the production and trade of these crops in Bulgaria between 2013 and 2017, as well as to implement an analysis of certain scenarios related chiefly to upcoming changes in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The model is linked with the global crop market through European Union prices, as the Bulgarian commodity market is considered to be a price taker, and it assumes the development of other agricultural sectors (livestock) and the macroeconomic situation in Bulgaria as exogenous variables. The research is an attempt to incorporate into Bulgarian analytical practice modelling methods that can provide useful figures and projections about the impacts of different political measures for decision makers, and market information on the prices and global supply and demand trends for farmers and agri-business organisations. The results show that the production of the modelled commodities will continue to increase in the coming years, mainly as a result of the growing global demand for cereals and the advantages of the production of these crops in Bulgaria compared to other field and permanent crops. It is also evident that the expected changes in the CAP will cause a small decrease in the planted and harvested area for most of these crops.