Brazilian Agri-Food Trade Amid Geopolitical Turbulence: New Perspectives on Old Challenges

This article analyses the evolving role of Brazil in the global agri-food system within the context of rising geopolitical and geoeconomic instability. It explores how Brazil, a leading food producer and exporter, navigates the mounting challenges posed by climate change, shifting trade alliances, protectionist policies, and new sustainability standards, particularly those imposed by key partners. Drawing on statistical data, policy analysis, and a comprehensive literature review, the study develops a critical and exploratory framework to understand the implications of these dynamics for Brazil’s agri-industrial sector. The paper traces Brazil’s agricultural transformation since the 1970s, driven by technology adoption, productivity gains, and export orientation. Brazil has achieved global competitiveness in agricultural products; however, its trade revenues are still highly concentrated on a restricted set of agricultural products and largely dependent on a few large importing countries, especially China. This dependency raises vulnerability amid global trade tensions and demand shifts. Simultaneously, emerging environmental regulations like the EU’s Deforestation Regulation introduce new compliance pressures, prompting the development of compliance and certification mechanisms. Although short-term gains have stemmed from geopolitical shifts such as the US–China trade war, long-term sustainability and market access hinge on Brazil’s ability to meet evolving environmental and governance expectations. This paper also highlights Brazil’s unique positioning as a “mid-level power” capable of leveraging its resource wealth, agri-food expertise, and diplomatic neutrality to play a pivotal role in a multipolar world. The paper concludes that Brazil’s path forward must balance competitiveness with sustainability, deepen public-private institutional collaboration, and strategically diversify trade relations. Robust governance is essential to safeguard Brazil´s agri-food leadership amid intensifying global uncertainty.