Recent trends in agri-food trade and the future in a changing geopolitical environment

Global agri-food trade is undergoing profound structural change, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, climate-related shocks, and evolving market dynamics. Agri-food trade has become central to food security, shaping access and availability across diverse regions. Recent trends indicate a modest resurgence in agricultural trade as a share of total global trade and a growing regionalisation of trade flows. While the European Union and Brazil have consolidated surplus positions through strategic policy alignment and export diversification, the United States faces declining competitiveness, trade stagnation, and a widening import gap. Simultaneously, China has emerged as the leading global importer, reshaping trade relationships and intensifying competition among suppliers. The volatility induced by trade wars, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine has been compounded by the proliferation of trade restrictions, which pose acute risks for import-dependent countries. These developments underscore the fragility of global food systems and the strategic implications of trade balances. As trade agreements are reconfigured and economic nationalism rises, long-term sustainability will hinge on investments in domestic agricultural capacity, modern infrastructure, and multilateral cooperation. Future trajectories of agri-food trade will be shaped by structural shifts in global demand, persistent trade costs – including tariffs, transportation bottlenecks, and non-tariff measures – and the increasingly complex intersection of environmental regulation and market access. With agricultural production projected to increase by over 21% globally in the next decade, addressing the compound pressures of geopolitical fragmentation and climate change will be essential to maintaining stable, equitable, and sustainable food systems.