Volume 127 - Issue 2

Global agri-food trade is undergoing profound structural change, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, climate-related shocks, and evolving market dynamics. Agri-food trade has become central to food security, shaping access and availability across diverse regions. Recent trends indicate a modest resurgence in agricultural trade as a share of total global trade and a growing regionalisation of trade flows. While the European Union and Brazil have consolidated surplus positions through strategic policy alignment and export diversification, the United States faces declining competitiveness, trade stagnation, and a widening import gap. Simultaneously, China has emerged as the leading global importer, reshaping trade relationships and intensifying competition among suppliers. The volatility induced by trade wars, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine has been compounded by the proliferation of trade restrictions, which pose acute risks for import-dependent countries. These developments underscore the fragility of global food systems and the strategic implications of trade balances. As trade agreements are reconfigured and economic nationalism rises, long-term sustainability will hinge on investments in domestic agricultural capacity, modern infrastructure, and multilateral cooperation. Future trajectories of agri-food trade will be shaped by structural shifts in global demand, persistent trade costs – including tariffs, transportation bottlenecks, and non-tariff measures –...

Over the past quarter of a century, the European Union has transformed itself from a defensive agricultural trade player into the world’s largest agri-food exporter and importer, driven by successive Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms and market-oriented adjustments. This paper traces the evolution of EU agri-trade, highlighting the role of decoupled payments, structural competitiveness, and diversification of trade flows. It assesses the EU’s resilience to recent crises – from COVID-19 to energy shocks and the Ukraine war – while examining growing tensions between trade liberalisation, environmental standards, and geopolitical fragmentation. The analysis stresses the mounting challenges in reconciling climate goals with food security concerns and warns against regressive policy trends that ignore past reform achievements. Ultimately, the paper argues for maintaining evidence-based, market-oriented strategies to preserve the EU’s global leadership in sustainable agri-trade amid rising demands for food sovereignty and strategic autonomy.

This paper examines the evolution of China’s agri-food trade over the past two decades amid increasing global uncertainty. Using a combination of quantitative trade data and qualitative policy analysis from 2000 to 2023, it explores how China has navigated crises such as the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical tensions. The findings highlight that China’s agri-food trade growth has been driven by trade liberalisation, domestic support policies, and a strategic focus on diversification and food security. However, challenges remain, including heavy import dependence, rising production costs, and environmental pressures. The study concludes that strengthening domestic capacity, investing in green innovation, and expanding trade partnerships are critical for long-term food system stability. These insights offer valuable lessons for other agricultural economies striving for greater resilience in a volatile global environment.

This paper draws implications of Trump’s re-election for the U.S. agri-food sector and in turn international agri-food trade. It begins with a historical perspective on U.S. agri-food trade and its role in world markets. It then turns to a review of Trump policies during his first term as President, 2017-21, and the significant market losses American farmers suffered during his first term. Despite these losses, farmers were an important constituency in re-electing Donald Trump President in 2024. The next section discusses American farmer attitudes and the sources of their continuing support for Trump in the 2024 election. This is followed by a critical review of what Donald Trump fails to recognise (or chooses to ignore) about international economics and the agri-food sector. The paper then reviews Trump’s policy announcements in the first four months back in office and draws inferences for American agriculture and the global agri-food sector in an environment that might best be described as navigating uncertainty.

This article analyses the evolving role of Brazil in the global agri-food system within the context of rising geopolitical and geoeconomic instability. It explores how Brazil, a leading food producer and exporter, navigates the mounting challenges posed by climate change, shifting trade alliances, protectionist policies, and new sustainability standards, particularly those imposed by key partners. Drawing on statistical data, policy analysis, and a comprehensive literature review, the study develops a critical and exploratory framework to understand the implications of these dynamics for Brazil’s agri-industrial sector. The paper traces Brazil’s agricultural transformation since the 1970s, driven by technology adoption, productivity gains, and export orientation. Brazil has achieved global competitiveness in agricultural products; however, its trade revenues are still highly concentrated on a restricted set of agricultural products and largely dependent on a few large importing countries, especially China. This dependency raises vulnerability amid global trade tensions and demand shifts. Simultaneously, emerging environmental regulations like the EU’s Deforestation Regulation introduce new compliance pressures, prompting the development of compliance and certification mechanisms. Although short-term gains have stemmed from geopolitical shifts such as the US–China trade war, long-term sustainability and market access hinge on Brazil’s ability to meet evolving environmental and governance expectations. This...

Deepening and expanding agricultural trade patterns require institutional and infrastructural investments that have to compete with other country and regional priorities such as expenditure on poverty alleviation and adaptation to, and mitigation of, the effects of climate change. As a result, arguments for expenditure on trade facilitation and on trade infrastructure need to be evidence-based. In this article we provide an overview of the wide range of challenges facing the Southern African region, then present two case studies that illustrate the benefits of investment in trade infrastructure. A reduction of 25% in the cost of regional trade in maize benefits producers and consumers, while reducing the cost of exporting citrus from South Africa leads to a 4.1% annual gain in revenue to producers.