The oil produced from sunflower seed is primarily used for human consumption. It can substitute for other edible vegetable oils, such as rapeseed oil, processed into biodiesel in the European Union. This paper assesses the influence of crude oil futures on new crop sunflower seed futures in Hungary during the growing seasons of sunflower by applying standard cointegration analysis for the period 2004-2013. Tests were performed for the entire period and each sunflower growing season. For comparison, the influence of Paris rapeseed futures on sunflower seed futures was also assessed. The contrasting estimations for the global and seasonal characteristics of the variables suggest that standard cointegration analysis may not be appropriate for multiannual price series of agricultural commodities with strong seasonality in production because it will not capture the periodical shocks in supply and demand. The results are briefly discussed from the aspect of the fundamentals of the sun-flower seed market.

Our study determines the competitive positions of the dairy sectors of Hungary and the other European Union (EU) Member States in the light of the abolition of the milk quota. We analyse the recent market positions of the EU Member States, the changes in the relationships between global, EU and Hungarian milk procurement prices, and the medium-term forecasts for the international markets for milk and milk products, including the results of our own model. In most Member States, milk production is below the quota level, although the most competitive countries are paying substantial penalties for excess production. The medium-term projections and the price relationships underline the fact that, due to the liberalisation of the milk market and the rapid rise in global demand, the impacts of global market developments in the EU will be further enhanced. Owing to sustained international demand, the EU’s export opportunities will improve, reducing the pressure on the internal market, and this will have a spill over effect on Hungarian milk prices. Although in terms of trade balance and quota utilisation Hungary is one of the least competitive Member States, the concentration, modernisation and selection processes that have taken place in the country’s dairy sector in...