The geopolitical developments that occurred in 2022 shook the global fertiliser market. One of the issues that the EJP SOIL ‘Scenario modelling for assessing impacts of policy changes and socio-economic effects on ecosystem services of soils (SIMPLE)’ project currently investigates is the potential consequences of increased fertiliser price on its demand and subsequent application. Looking at this question from an economic perspective, an answer can be found via the estimation of the relevant elasticity of demand. Therefore, we aim at providing empirical evidence on the responsiveness of demand for nitrogen (N) fertiliser to changes in its price. Having a better understanding of how farmers can react to changes in the price of this production input is key for several reasons. Firstly, lower fertiliser application can reduce soil productivity, leading to price increases of agricultural commodities due to lower production volumes. Secondly, an increase in the cost of inputs can affect negatively the financial viability of those farming activities which rely on mineral fertiliser. Thirdly, important negative environmental impacts are associated with its excessive use, creating a need to curb demand under certain circumstances. Taking Sweden as a case study, three different econometric techniques (OLS, FE and FE-IV) are applied to...

The supply and use of bio-based products may yet shape the future, contributing to the achievement of broader objectives such as climate neutrality, circularity, and sustainability. Reducing dependency on non-renewable resources, and substituting fossil-based resources with biomass by way of a transition to a sustainable industrial – and especially chemical – sector, represent important challenges. To be able to understand what may be desirable pathways to a ‘green’ chemical sector, insights on the upcoming needs of biomass for the EU bio-based industry are required, together with information about its availability and the way it is produced. However, there is a lack of methodologies and quantitative tools capable of assessing and anticipating potential developments in the EU bio-based markets. To provide an early theoretical basis for the upcoming modelling of supply chains of the bio-based materials market, this short communication presents the conceptual framework underlying the BioMAT (Bio-based MATerials) model, developed in the course of the EU H2020 BioMonitor project.

This paper investigates the effects of three different simulated post-COVID-19 recovery GDP growth rates during 2021-2023 (baseline, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios) for agricultural markets in four selected EU Member States (the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, and Hungary) compared to a pre-COVID-19 projection. Empirical results are derived from the AGMEMOD model. A self-sufficiency ratio is utilised to summarise the net effects on consumption and supply in the agricultural markets. The country level analysis confirms that the agriculture sector in the EU has been quite resilient during the pandemic. The simulated impacts of the different GDP shocks on the agri-food sector are limited, which also conforms to reality, but changes in consumer behaviour could lead to longer lasting impacts on specific sectors.