This paper examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine armed conflict on agricultural trade, focusing specifically on the surge in maize exports from Ukraine to Hungary during the marketing year 2022/23. The conflict has significantly disrupted maritime trade routes, particularly affecting export logistics of Ukraine. The study analyses shifts in trade patterns and market dynamics associated with these disruptions, emphasising that these changes appear temporary and do not pose a continuous threat to grain markets of EU member states neighbouring Ukraine. The findings underscore the importance of safe and adaptive logistics in maintaining market stability amidst geopolitical tensions.

This paper presents an analysis of the potential socio-economic implications of the European Commission’s policy initiative to ban the use of cages in EU livestock farming, with a specific focus on conventional farrowing crates in the pig sector. Using the CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact) tool, a multi-purpose comparative-static partial equilibrium modelling framework, the study examines two scenarios: an immediate phase-out of conventional farrowing crates by 2025 and a 10-year transition period until 2035. The simulation results indicate that the ban would lead to a significant decline in pork production in the EU, with production decreasing by 23.6% in the immediate phase-out scenario and by 8.4% in the 10-year transition scenario. The decline in production affects domestic demand and weakens the EU’s net trade position. However, the ban would also result in an increase in consumer prices and producer prices for pork, partly moderating the decline in profits for the pig sector. Moreover, the study highlights the interconnectedness of agricultural policies and the importance of a global assessment of their impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The simultaneous decline in EU pork exports and increase in EU pork imports trigger emission leakage: while GHG emissions from EU pork production...

This paper investigates the effects of three different simulated post-COVID-19 recovery GDP growth rates during 2021-2023 (baseline, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios) for agricultural markets in four selected EU Member States (the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, and Hungary) compared to a pre-COVID-19 projection. Empirical results are derived from the AGMEMOD model. A self-sufficiency ratio is utilised to summarise the net effects on consumption and supply in the agricultural markets. The country level analysis confirms that the agriculture sector in the EU has been quite resilient during the pandemic. The simulated impacts of the different GDP shocks on the agri-food sector are limited, which also conforms to reality, but changes in consumer behaviour could lead to longer lasting impacts on specific sectors.

The oil produced from sunflower seed is primarily used for human consumption. It can substitute for other edible vegetable oils, such as rapeseed oil, processed into biodiesel in the European Union. This paper assesses the influence of crude oil futures on new crop sunflower seed futures in Hungary during the growing seasons of sunflower by applying standard cointegration analysis for the period 2004-2013. Tests were performed for the entire period and each sunflower growing season. For comparison, the influence of Paris rapeseed futures on sunflower seed futures was also assessed. The contrasting estimations for the global and seasonal characteristics of the variables suggest that standard cointegration analysis may not be appropriate for multiannual price series of agricultural commodities with strong seasonality in production because it will not capture the periodical shocks in supply and demand. The results are briefly discussed from the aspect of the fundamentals of the sun-flower seed market.

As the Black Sea Region (BSR) has recently emerged as a major world grain exporter region, this study assesses the possible influence of BSR maize prices on maize futures prices in Hungary. To measure the linear relationship between these prices the Pearson’s correlation was used, and to estimate their cointegration the Johansen test was performed for the period April 2011 to December 2013. Prices of Paris (MATIF) and Chicago (CBOT) maize futures were also included in the analysis for comparison. The results suggest that BSR maize prices had little or no influence on futures price discovery in Hungary during the period investigated. From this it can be concluded that (a) BSR supply and demand conditions bore negligible importance for market participants, and (b) Budapest Stock Exchange maize futures may not be efficient tools for hedging price risks associated with Hungarian maize exports to third countries where prices are derived from quotes at BSR seaports. On the other hand, MATIF maize futures prices had a measurable impact on the pricing of maize futures in Hungary, although this connection disappeared for the period April-December 2013. The same was true for CBOT maize futures prices which Hungarian maize futures prices were also cointegrated...

In Hungary, the rates of direct payments to farmers under the Common Agricultural Policy for the period 2014-2020, the distribution of these payments, and ultimately their impacts on farming decisions, will depend on the combination of mandatory and optional Pillar I support schemes to be introduced in 2015. This paper presents estimations of the structural impact of six new support policy option mixes (scenarios) compared to 2013 (baseline), and discusses the policy implications in terms of the degressivity of direct payments versus the possible introduction of the Redistributive Payment in particular. The calculations of direct payment rates and the distribution of these payments were based on the database of the Hungarian Agricultural and Rural Development Agency for 2011, and the moving averages of the descriptive parameters of farms were obtained from the Farm Accountancy Data Network. To assess the structural impacts an agent-based simulation model was developed. Decisions were modelled at the micro-level and macro-outcomes were modelled as the consequences of these micro-level decisions. From an economic point of view, the Redistributive Payment would have no real advantage over the reduction of direct payments in Hungary as the Redistributive Payment would benefit only farms of relatively small size and would...

This paper assesses the impacts of the global financial and economic crisis on the agro-food sector of Central and Eastern European, Caucasus and Central Asian countries on the basis of research conducted in Hungary, Ukraine, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. The objective of the study was to propose policy options to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations and other public authorities which can be applied to lessen the undesirable effects of the current or future crises in the sector. Results of interviews of stakeholders were analysed in the context of primary economic data and sixteen policy recommendations were formulated.