The CAP and the Future of Rural Areas: Competing Rural Development Strategies in Europe from a Political Economy Perspective

This article develops a political economy framework to interpret the evolution of rural development policy in Europe. It argues that European rural policy should not be understood as a linear transition from agricultural modernisation to placebased development, but as a layered and contested policy field in which multiple strategies coexist and compete. The paper identifies four ideal-typical strategies: distributive support, agri-food competitiveness, disparity reduction, and holistic place-sensitive development. These strategies are analysed not only as policy paradigms, but also as concrete configurations of instruments, governance arrangements, beneficiaries, delivery mechanisms and financial allocations. Their effectiveness is assessed in relation to two main dimensions: their capacity to reduce territorial disparities and social marginalisation, and their contribution to strengthening the competitiveness and development potential of rural areas. The article shows that distributive and sectoral logics remain resilient because they are supported by established administrative routines, powerful constituencies and policy feedback mechanisms. At the same time, territorial and placesensitive approaches have gained legitimacy in response to depopulation, service decline, rural marginalisation and persistent territorial inequalities, although their consolidation depends on integrated governance, local capacity and multi-fund coordination. The paper further examines how external shocks and crises may rebalance political competition in favour of faster, more visible sectoral measures. Finally, it discusses the implications of the post-2027 MFF reform, arguing that the Single Fund could theoretically favour holistic rural strategies, but may also reinforce sectoral ring-fencing, recentralisation and competition over resources unless stronger rural safeguards, territorial chapters and participatory governance mechanisms are introduced.