Assessing the 2028–2034 CAP Reform: A Budget- and Payment-Driven Scenario Analysis Using the GLOBIOM Partial Equilibrium Model

The European Commission’s July 2025 Multiannual Financial Framework proposal introduces structural changes to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for the 2028–2034 programming period, raising questions about its alignment with the environmental ambitions of the Green Deal. This paper uses the spatially explicit partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to assess how the proposed policy shifts alter production incentives and land allocation across EU Member States. We operationalise the reform by linking regional budget envelopes with unit payment rates for the key interventions, including the degressive area-based income support corridor, the consolidated Agri-Environmental and Climate Action (AECA) framework, and expanded coupled income support. Testing Member State implementation strategies ranging from fiscal minimisation to high environmental ambition, we quantify impacts on agricultural production, prices, trade, and greenhouse gas emissions, explicitly capturing the quantity-rationing effects of binding budget constraints. Results show that the aggregate 15% budget cut translates into heterogeneous impacts across instruments and Member States, that payment rate equalisation is the reform’s primary redistributive mechanism, and that without practice conditionality the environmental gains of even ambitious green implementation remain limited.